Versioned public inputs
Coal Crossover
We exclusively rely on public sources. Input files are preserved unchanged, and their releases, retrieval dates, file sizes, checksums, and roles are recorded before modeling.
Model foundation
Primary model inputs
| Source | Version | Role | Important limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Energy Monitor | Global Coal Plant Tracker, January 2026 | Operating unit registry, plant IDs, capacity, coordinates, modeled heat rate, capacity factor, and CO2 | Heat rates and capacity factors are modeled, not plant-metered |
| IRENA | Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, July 2026 | Solar and wind CapEx, O&M, lifetime, and real after-tax WACC | Country values use a documented regional/global fallback when unavailable |
| Global Solar Atlas | v2.13 annual PVOUT raster | Same-country solar resource within 45 km | Resource potential, not a permitted-site assessment |
| Global Wind Atlas | 4.0, IEC Class II capacity factor at 100 m | Same-country wind resource within 45 km; 15% central gross-to-net loss | Resource potential, not site-specific engineering |
| World Bank Commodity Markets | Pink Sheet monthly data, January 2023–December 2025 window | Transparent coal-price benchmarks and empirical sensitivity range | International benchmark proxies, not plant-delivered coal prices |
| IEA and NEA | Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020 datatables | Country-technology coal O&M and technology medians | Prospective harmonized observations, not global plant-level O&M |
| Natural Earth | Admin 0 Countries v5.1.1 | Same-country screening for solar and wind raster cells | Administrative boundary representation only |
| World Bank Development Indicators | GDP deflator through 2025 | Convert IEA/NEA 2018 USD to constant 2025 USD | Applied only where a historical dollar basis requires conversion |
Cross-checks
Validation and sensitivity sources
- Steffen et al. (2025), Scientific Data: independent global renewable cost-of-capital validation. It is not silently merged with IRENA because the records span different years and conventions.
- IEA LCOE Calculator: formula and cost-component cross-check.
- Coal Cost Crossover 3.0: precedent for a local-resource comparison radius and for cautious interpretation.
- Damodaran country-risk workbooks, U.S. Treasury yields, Ember country electricity data, and PyPSA technology-data are retained for auditing or sensitivity analysis but do not define the central result.
Reproducibility
Traceability and historical comparison
Every admitted source has a release label, retrieval date, byte size, integrity check, and SHA-256 checksum. The data build records its method hash, source-manifest hash, software versions, and output hashes. Generated plant and unit files preserve the source level used for coal price, coal O&M, renewable CapEx, WACC, O&M, and spatial resource matching.
Historical processed datasets are retained only to compare coverage and aggregate distributions. They are not used as source inputs for the current results.